2024/4/26

黃金新聞

黃金出現最高的「熔漲」可能性，但不排除 10% 的修正

眾所周知，大宗商品會在重大地緣政治事件發生後出現頂峰，但黃金在任何方向上的波動都不會超過10%，因為市場出現自20 世紀80 年代以來熔漲的可能性最高。
3月1日至4月12日期間，由於中東緊張局勢升級、各國央行創紀錄的購買、對黏性通膨的擔憂、美國政府債務飆升以及法幣持續貶值，黃金價格飆升18%，上漲約400美元，並創下歷史新高。

金價上漲後，各大銀行均調高了金價前景。花旗集團目前呼籲金價在 6 至 18 個月內達到 3,000 美元，高盛預計金價到年底將達到 2,700 美元，瑞銀則將年底目標上調至每盎司 2,500 美元。
截至撰寫本文時，現貨黃金已從歷史高點回落，穩定在每盎司 2,330 美元。

迪利安表示，銀行提高金價目標在一定程度上令人擔憂，他預計短期內金價趨勢將耗盡。
Dillian 告訴 Kitco News 首席主播兼主編 Michelle Makori：“黃金將會見頂，這將在 2,500 美元的某個時刻發生。” 「我關注的是情緒，它已經變得有點熱了。黃金人士，包括我自己，在推特上更加看漲了一點。我認為你會看到短期內看漲情緒耗盡，然後價格回調。”
Dillian 擁有 40% 的黃金敞口，他繼續持有自己的頭寸，但計劃進行對沖。 「我預計會有 10% 左右的修正，」他說。
Dillian 將黃金未來潛在的價格走勢與可可進行了比較，指出貴金屬也可能出現類似的拋物線走勢，因為黃金正在面臨自 20 世紀 80 年代以來熔化的最高可能性。

財經新聞

美國增長和通膨報告好壞參半後，美元下跌

美元週四下跌（兌日圓除外），數據顯示經濟成長意外放緩，通膨加速加速，這可能會限制聯準會轉向更寬鬆的利率。
儘管美元兌日圓匯率幾乎沒有受到動搖，但在美國商務部報告稱美國 1 月至 3 月期間國內生產總值年化增長率為1.6%，低於接受調查的經濟學家預期的2.4% 後，美元兌日圓匯率才短暫上漲。

報告也顯示，以核心個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數衡量的基礎通膨第一季上漲3.7%，超過預期的3.4%。
通膨意外使得周五發布的 3 月份個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數數據比平常更加受到關注。 PCE指數以及剔除食品和能源價格的核心PCE指數是聯準會最重要的價格行為指標之一。通膨仍然頑固地高於聯準會2%的通膨目標。
奧地利維也納Convera全球市場策略師鮑里斯·科瓦切維奇(Boris Kovacevic)表示：「市場對(GDP)數據的反應告訴了你需要了解的投資者關注的一切，而且主要是通膨而不是成長。 」
“3.7% 的 PCE 確實表明明天的 PCE 數字將會更高。”

與此同時，週四日圓兌美元觸及34 年來的新低，兌歐元則觸及16 年來的低點，因為投資者預計週五結束的日本央行(BOJ) 政策會議不會強硬到足以支撐日圓走勢。
該數據導致基準公債殖利率上漲，觸及106.00，衡量美元兌六種貨幣價值的美元指數扭轉了隔夜小幅跌幅。最後報 105.60，下跌 0.21%。
相反，GDP數據公佈後，美元一度跌至155.31日圓，但很快逆轉，上漲0.19%至155.63日圓。
日圓兌日圓匯率一度升至34年高點155.75，而歐元兌日圓匯率則飆升至167.025，創16年新高。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.