2025/12/11

黃金新聞

聯準會降息後，黃金價格最初反應平淡

美國午後交易時段，黃金價格基本持穩，此前聯準會如預期降息。白銀價格普遍上漲，但已從今日稍早創下的歷史高點回落。 2月黃金期貨價格下跌1.10美元，報每盎司4,235.00美元。 3月白銀期貨價格上漲0.29美元，報每盎司61.14美元。

剛結束的聯準會公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議不出所料地將美國主要利率交易區間下修0.25%，至3.50%至3.75%。 FOMC聲明稱，通膨仍將保持相對穩定，短期內可能不會再次降息。交易員目前正等待聯準會主席鮑威爾的記者會。 FOMC聲明以及鮑威爾對聯準會貨幣政策走向的指引，將是今天市場密切關注的焦點。

今日主要外部市場美元指數走低。原油價格略為走強，交易價格在每桶58.50美元左右。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.166%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。

美元新聞

美元在就業數據公佈後走強

週二，美元走強，好於預期的就業市場數據凸顯了勞動力市場依然堅挺，此前聯準會預計將降息，政策制定者可能會強調可能限制進一步寬鬆措施的通膨風險。
市場也密切關注週末前央行的幾項決議。週二，澳洲儲備銀行維持利率不變，並排除了進一步降息的可能性，澳元因此走強。

另一方面，美元在數據顯示美國10月份職缺略有增加，但招聘依然疲軟後，繼續走強。根據週二公佈的職缺和勞動力流動調查（JOLTS）報告，截至10月底，職缺（衡量勞動力需求的指標）增加了1.2萬個，達到767萬個。
路透社調查的經濟學家先前預測，將有715萬個職缺。
報告發布後，美元走強，兌日圓升至兩週高點附近，接近157日元，最新報156.845日元，上漲0.6%。美元兌歐元也走強，歐元下跌0.1%，至1.1629美元。
數據塵埃落定後，市場再次將目光轉向聯準會。

由於人們越來越懷疑即將接替傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的美聯儲主席熱門人選凱文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）能否像美國總統唐納德·特朗普所希望的那樣採取鴿派立場，投資者正在降低對2026 年降息的預期。鮑威爾的八年聯準會主席任期將於 5 月結束。
「明天會發生什麼，目前存在許多不確定性。但降息幾乎已成定局，」加拿大豐業銀行駐多倫多首席外匯策略師肖恩·奧斯本表示。
「但除此之外，聯準會明天能做什麼還有很多變數。我認為市場似乎預期鮑威爾會試圖將再次降息的門檻設定得相對較高，但我並不確定這真的能給美元帶來多大的提振。”
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數小漲0.1%，至99.21。

Market Commentary

Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens

Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”

Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.

BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.