2024/5/6

黃金新聞

金價持續徘徊在 2,300 美元附近，但走勢緩慢

黃金市場正在旋轉，陷入僵局，這可能會導致投資者獲利了結，並在短期內打壓金價。
分析師表示，隨著今年夏天降息的可能性越來越小，黃金投資者需要聯準會提供更多明確資訊。
Zaye Capital Markets 首席投資官 Naeem Aslam 表示：“黃金多頭現在似乎有點疲倦了，他們需要美聯儲就其貨幣政策發出明確的信息。”

黃金市場預計本週結束時將測試 2,300 美元/盎司附近的支撐位。 6 月黃金期貨最新交易價格為每盎司 2,309.70 美元，較上週五下跌約 1%。儘管黃金在過去兩週遭遇拋售，但價格仍較 2 月中旬低點上漲 15%。
自從聯準會將利率維持在5.25%至5.50%區間不變後，投資人一直對聯準會的貨幣政策提出質疑。央行表示，由於通膨仍居高不下，尚未準備好降息。
儘管寬鬆週期被推遲，但聯準會主席鮑威爾明確表示利率不會走高。
「我認為下一次政策利率變動不太可能是升息。我想說這不太可能，」鮑威爾在新聞發布會上表示。
週五的就業數據加劇了金價的波動，該數據顯示美國經濟4月創造了17.5萬個就業崗位，大幅低於預期。同時，失業率升至3.9%，薪資成長不如預期。

儘管就業報告確實支持聯準會降息，推高金價，但分析師表示，時機不確定性繼續主導市場情緒，近幾周大幅上漲的投資者可能會利用反彈獲利了結。
FXTM市場分析經理盧克曼·奧圖努加(Lukman Otunuga)表示，「隨著美國經濟上個月創造了17.5萬個就業崗位，失業率升至3.9%，市場目前預計聯準會最早將於9月降息。儘管今天的基本面看漲，但目前的疲軟可能是獲利了結的結果。展望未來，貴金屬可能仍對聯準會官員的演講和數據敏感，這可能為聯準會 2024 年降息時機提供更多線索。
儘管價格仍具有一定的技術看漲勢頭，但 Otunuga 表示，交易員必須關注 2,300 美元。
“跌破2300美元可能會導致金價測試2230美元。如果2300美元被證明是可靠的支撐，多頭可能會重新測試2390美元。”
道明證券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略主管巴克‧梅萊克(Bark Melek)在周五非農就業數據公佈後的報告中表示，他認為黃金近期上漲空間有限。他補充說，儘管就業數據令人失望，但聯準會仍不急於降息。
梅萊克寫道：“我們仍然存在通貨膨脹，這對於聯邦公開市場委員會來說太高了，以至於無法在下次會議上輕鬆觸發降息。” 「這項數據不太可能足以讓 ETF 投資者和主流基金經理人追逐黃金。因此，目前上漲空間有限，2,330 美元是合理的短期上漲目標。除此之外，我們認為黃金正在進入黃金市場。」一旦經濟更加疲軟且市場對降息的時機和幅度更加確定，就會突破2,500 美元。

財經新聞

四月新增就業人數少於預期，美元下跌

數據顯示美國4月份就業成長放緩幅度超過預期且年度薪資漲幅降溫，美元兌日圓週五跌至三週低點，增加了聯準會將降息的押註今年兩次。
上個月雇主增加了 175,000 個工作崗位，低於經濟學家預期的增加 243,000 個。截至 4 月的 12 個月中，薪資成長了 3.9%，低於 3 月成長 4.1% 後成長 4.0% 的預期。
失業率從3.8%升至3.9%，連續27個月維持在4%以下。

費城格倫梅德投資策略和研究主管傑森·普萊德表示：“從美聯儲的角度來看，數據全面疲軟。”
聯邦基金期貨交易員押注聯準會今年將降息兩次，降息幅度從數據公佈前的 42 個基點上升到 47 個基點。
首席全球策略師昆西·克羅斯比(Quincy Krosby)表示：「目前市場非常希望聯準會能夠在今年降息，而不希望出現一個熱門數據。今天的報告無疑讓他們對勞動力狀況有了更冷靜的了解。

不過，除非這種趨勢持續下去，否則該報告本身不太可能影響聯準會的政策。
普萊德表示：“3.9%的失業率並不是什麼災難性的事情。這表明經濟並未大幅下滑，但絕對表明勞動力市場更加寬鬆。” “這給了美聯儲一些希望，但並沒有為他們確立趨勢。”
聯準會在周三為期兩天的會議後表示，黏性通膨意味著降息需要更長的時間。
聯準會理事米歇爾鮑曼週五表示，即使聯準會將基準利率維持在當前水平，通膨也應繼續下降，同時重申，如果進展減弱或出現逆轉，她願意提高政策利率。
芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行主席古爾斯比周五表示，就業報告顯示「穩健」的成長放緩至一定程度，這可能會讓聯準會官員對經濟沒有過熱更有信心。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.