聯準會暗示暫停升息 金價企穩
聯準會的最新政策聲明給貴金屬帶來了一些喘息的機會。儘管聯準會如廣泛預期的那樣維持利率不變，但它暗示有可能繼續暫停利率，從而緩和了美國利率長期走高的預期。
聯準會的鷹派態度沒有預期那麼強硬，鮑威爾的新聞發布會給黃金投資者帶來了一線希望，聯準會主席鮑威爾表示，儘管承認在將通膨降至2%目標方面缺乏進展，但不太可能進一步升息。這一立場緩解了黃金的一些壓力，該金屬因美國利率持續高企的前景而面臨阻力。
「聯準會的官方聲明確實承認近幾個月來在降低通膨方面『缺乏進一步進展』。鮑威爾表示堅信當前的貨幣政策足以限制通膨，最終使通膨回到聯準會2%的目標.因此，不太可能下一個政策舉措將是升息，」晨星公司首席美國經濟學家普雷斯頓考德威爾表示。
一份報告稱，儘管面臨挑戰，但在場外市場「健康投資」和央行強勁購買的提振下，第一季黃金需求仍錄得八年來最強勁的表現，這是有史以來最好的開局。
投資者現在將注意力轉向周五備受關注的非農業就業數據，該數據可能為勞動力市場的彈性和聯準會未來的利率路徑提供進一步的見解。此外，今天也發布了每周初請失業金人數和三月工廠訂單數據。
勞工部報告稱，截至 4 月 27 日當周初請失業金人數維持在 208,000 人不變，反映出就業市場持續緊張。然而，有跡象表明就業情況可能會放緩，政府報告稱 3 月有 850 萬個職位空缺，這是三年來的最低職位空缺數量。
隨著通膨壓力和經濟成長之間的拉鋸戰持續進行，黃金的表現將取決於聯準會在抑制通膨和避免經濟嚴重下滑之間取得微妙平衡的能力。
美元等待美國就業數據
週五，日圓將迎來一年多以來表現最好的一周，這得益於東京本週疑似進行幹預，將日元拉離34年來的低點，這也使得美元普遍走高。
亞洲早盤，日圓兌美元匯率升至盤中高點152.895美元，預計週漲幅將超過3%，為2022年12月以來的最大漲幅。
日本最近一次進軍貨幣市場是在流動性稀薄的時期，該國週一放假，而第二次嘗試則發生在周三晚間華爾街收盤後。
Vishnu Varathan 表示：「為了獲得最大效果，優選的是經過深思熟慮的機會主義市場行動。（財政部）在這方面也有所實踐。此外，未知和意外因素是日本央行和財政部希望保留的關鍵優勢。 」瑞穗銀行亞洲（日本除外）首席經濟學家。
自本周初以來，日圓兌美元匯率已升值近 8 日圓，當時日圓兌美元首次跌破 160 美元兌 160 美元的關鍵水平，一些人表示，這一水平可能是當局的底線。
在其他方面，美元兌大多數貨幣下跌，並有望迎來近兩個月來最糟糕的一周，部分原因是日圓本周大幅升值。
聯準會主席鮑威爾本周向市場表示，央行下一步的利率舉措可能會下調，而不是像一些人預測的那樣加息，交易員現在正在關注週五晚些時候公佈的美國非農就業數據，以指導美元的下一步走勢。
正如預期的那樣，聯準會在為期兩天的貨幣政策會議結束時維持利率穩定，並表示仍傾向於最終降息，即使降息可能需要比最初預期更長的時間。
歐元兌美元上漲 0.05%，收在 1.0730 美元，預計週漲幅為 0.35%。英鎊穩定在 1.25365 美元，本周同樣將上漲 0.3% 以上。
美元兌一籃子貨幣幾乎沒有變化，為105.32，在美聯儲言論不像人們擔心的那麼鷹派之後，美元一直難以重新站穩腳跟。
美元指數本周有望下跌 0.7%，為 3 月以來的最差表現。
Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400
Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.
While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.
