2024/4/25

黃金新聞

中國需求將繼續支撐金市

黃金本周遭受重大損失，因為投機投資者關注美聯儲將寬鬆週期推遲到夏季之後，甚至是 11 月 2024 年美國大選之後。
儘管短期內價格仍有下跌空間，但一家研究公司指出，中國和其他亞洲投資者的基本需求仍然強勁，應該會在 2024 年繼續支撐價格上漲。

中國的黃金需求如此強勁，以至於散戶投資者自 2023 年底以來一直在支付較高的溢價。高出40 美元左右。
Metals Focus 的分析師在最近的一份研究報告中指出，從歷史上看，亞洲投資者都是因金價上漲而拋售的。然而，這次反彈有所不同，因為隨著金價升至每盎司 2,400 美元以上的歷史高位，對實體金條的需求仍然強勁。
「儘管價格大幅上漲對金飾消費造成壓力，但看漲的價格預期（以及一些國家缺乏替代投資選擇）實際上有助於提振金條和金幣的需求，並限制了亞洲和亞洲地區的獲利了結規模。 “即使西方零售投資進一步下降，預計 2024 年小金條和金幣的全球銷量仍將小幅上升。”
Metals Focus 表示，預計中國今年的黃金需求將保持健康，2023 年將成長 28%。

分析師指出，中國黃金需求背後的一個重要因素是，隨著經濟不確定性的上升，投資人幾乎沒有什麼選擇來保護自己的財富。
值得注意的是，2023年，商品房銷售面積和銷售額較去年同期分別下降8.5%和6.5%。至於股市，上證綜指和深成指去年大部分時間都面臨壓力，而近期的反彈似乎已陷入停滯，」Metals Focus表示。 “所有這些都有利於黃金作為避險資產和投資組合多元化工具對投資者的吸引力。”
分析師也指出，隨著中國人民銀行連續 17 個月購買黃金，消費者只是在追隨政府的引導。
分析師表示： “中國央行持續的黃金多元化很可能增強了當地投資者對黃金的信心，並鞏固了其對沖市場動盪和金融不穩定的作用。”

財經新聞

日本日圓貶值，觸及1美元兌155日圓

日圓兌美元匯率週三跌至1990年中期以來的最低水平，高於關鍵的155區域，市場對日本當局幹預支撐日圓匯率的任何跡象保持警惕。
隨著日圓下跌，美元小幅走高，兌大多數貨幣從週二數據顯示本月美國商業活動放緩造成的下跌中恢復過來。

美元兌日圓一度升至155.37日圓，為1990年中期以來的最高水平，隨後在震盪交易中回落，這是市場在155水平附近緊張的跡象。最後報155.26，上漲約0.3%。
日圓兌美元疲軟引發了市場對貨幣幹預的焦慮。日本財務大臣鈴木俊一和其他政策制定者表示，他們正在密切關注匯率走勢，並將根據需要做出反應。
執政黨高級官員Takao Ochi告訴路透社，貨幣跌至 160 可能會引發幹預。 Ochi表示，如果日圓兌美元進一步跌向160或170，“這可能會被認為過度，並可能促使政策制定者考慮採取一些行動。”
然而，市場參與者對日本對日圓的評論持保留態度。

道明證券(TD Securities)駐紐約的全球外匯策略師賈亞蒂·巴拉德瓦吉(Jayati Bharadwaj)表示，“美元/日元的走勢與廣泛的美元重新評估一致。” “這並不是由日本央行（日本央行）投機推動的，去年曾一度如此，而是由基本面支撐的美元廣泛走勢。”
她補充說，如果日本央行代表財政部進行幹預，它不會針對「整數」。
「我認為日本央行沒有記住具體的數字。這必須是此舉的幅度，」她補充道。
日本央行定於週四開始為期兩天的政策會議，市場普遍預計日本央行將維持政策設定和債券購買金額不變，並於上個月首次升息，這是自 2007 年以來的首次。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.