2025/7/25

黃金新聞

黃金、白銀因獲利回吐、避險情緒減弱而走弱

週四午盤附近，黃金和白銀價格走低，但金價已脫離盤中低點。短期期貨交易商在兩種金屬上均出現獲利回吐，而黃金市場則出現疲軟的多頭平倉（近期建立多頭部位但隨後迅速下跌的期貨交易商）。今日市場普遍風險偏好增強，也對避險金屬構成利空。 8 月黃金期貨最新下跌 19.50 美元，至 3,378.40 美元。 9 月白銀期貨最新下跌 0.218 美元，至 39.285 美元。

今日關鍵的外部市場顯示美元指數略有走強。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格上漲，目前交易價格約每桶66.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.402%。

從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於6月高點3,476.30美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

美元兌日圓下跌

週三，美元兌瑞士法郎和歐元走強，但兌日圓走弱，因為美國新貿易協定帶來的正面情緒被日本首相石破茂未來的政治不確定性所抵消。
美國總統川普週二宣布與日本達成貿易協議，將汽車進口關稅降至15%，以換取美國提供5,500億美元的投資和貸款。這是川普自今年4月宣布對全球徵收全面關稅以來達成的一系列協議中最重要的一項。
美元兌瑞郎上漲，預計將結束連續三個交易日的下跌勢頭。最新一期瑞郎上漲0.24%，至0.79425。

華爾街主要股指均上漲，美國公債殖利率上升。
有報導稱石破茂打算在參議院選舉慘敗後於下個月辭職，隨後美元兌日圓匯率走弱，跌至 7 月 11 日以來的最低水平 146.20 。
石破茂否認了有關他決定辭職的報道，稱這些報道「完全沒有根據」。日圓匯率最新下跌0.06%，至146.565日圓。

華盛頓 Monex USA 交易高級總監 Juan Perez 在一份聲明中對路透社表示，“推動美元/日元走勢的主要因素與政治焦慮有關，因為看起來首相正感受到考慮辭職的壓力。”
這項協議目前對汽車製造商有利，但也讓市場懷疑關稅是否會在某個時候上調，因為關稅不會消失，成為談判一切問題的工具。日本作為已開發經濟體同意新的貿易條款，確實令人擔憂，如果成功利用關稅，是否會促使其繼續使用威脅手段。
兩位外交官向路透社透露，歐盟與美國正朝著達成貿易協議的方向邁進，將對美國進口的歐盟商品徵收15%的廣泛關稅。該協議將與美國與日本達成的類似協議相似。
歐元縮減早期的跌幅，兌美元上漲 0.08%，至 1.176250 美元。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”